Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 18.353046 21.350146 24.628945 28.475008 32.855357 37.681158 43.392469
2024-10-27 12.554319 16.409354 21.073903 27.099625 34.639975 43.723163 55.448374
2024-11-03 10.416220 14.898374 20.756146 28.892054 39.805220 53.830608 73.093424
2024-11-10 9.179394 14.143012 21.051992 31.225662 45.647348 65.148299 93.251553
2024-11-17 7.689462 12.683780 20.045726 31.471523 48.483195 72.537452 108.685796
2024-11-24 6.387251 11.228178 18.753118 31.008109 50.084740 78.162825 121.961744
2024-12-01 5.273275 9.849904 17.330658 30.076178 50.753026 82.330395 133.294244
2024-12-08 4.544069 8.974460 16.555915 30.010943 52.661696 88.406881 147.858035
2024-12-15 3.991505 8.307836 16.017643 30.228039 54.978630 95.224949 164.013901
2024-12-22 3.247642 7.152121 14.453234 28.460881 53.747164 96.170313 170.762470
2024-12-29 2.982476 6.880026 14.446011 29.441167 57.300419 105.222568 191.401294
2025-01-05 2.821821 6.792348 14.767554 31.045944 62.083197 116.679684 216.850342
2025-01-12 2.410701 6.127803 13.925537 30.445138 62.983990 121.842766 232.558930
2025-01-19 1.975456 5.329102 12.703396 28.963087 62.120190 123.897058 243.192356
2025-01-26 1.881092 5.308914 13.118683 30.861642 67.988358 138.689089 277.877301
2025-02-02 1.833659 5.394301 13.774176 33.336901 75.235682 156.606051 319.591209
2025-02-09 1.637583 5.060232 13.429085 33.597524 77.979737 166.154971 346.324235
2025-02-16 1.422851 4.629214 12.787471 33.105876 79.080140 172.565302 367.496624
2025-02-23 1.212834 4.162292 11.980448 32.117109 78.985356 176.549303 384.172180
2025-03-02 1.076458 3.878496 11.586358 32.047889 80.889640 184.703389 409.647013
2025-03-09 0.969906 3.661231 11.330213 32.278241 83.481486 194.457333 438.995198
2025-03-16 0.796068 3.184381 10.292992 30.402893 81.000395 193.289052 445.797533
2025-03-23 0.747308 3.114625 10.380059 31.443274 85.515705 207.496244 485.666471